What this document is
The State A / State B economic model for the Broward County SWA: what the Authority pays under the current system and under the CSA, and what it receives — shown as separate flows.
- State A is a $91/ton modeled gate rate on a system whose RRF is under pending sale with no contracted alternative.
- State B: $14.60M Year-1 Beneficiation Fee at Phase Initial; a Circular Royalty™ of $17.52M in Year 2 growing to ~$874M gross over 30 years.
- Two independent gross transactions, reported separately; zero Authority capital.
Broward County SWA, Florida
Economic Impact Report
At $91/ton FWDC, ACM deployment delivers a Circular Royalty™ of $120/ton from Year 2 — at zero Authority capital. The Exogenesis™ bonus, when confirmed, adds an independent landfill remediation stream alongside the CSA.
What This Report Measures
What This Report Measures
State A is the current Broward County SWA solid waste system — 14,575 TPD flowing to a WTE facility under pending sale, landfills approaching capacity, and no contracted alternative. Sourced from the Waste Study. Not re-diagnosed here.
State B is the system with Carbotura ACM deployed. All State B values derive from the Proposal — specifically from the Registry and Proposal body. No values are independently derived by this EIR.
This EIR models — the Standard CSA under which the SWA pays the Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) and receives the Circular Royalty™. The Exogenesis™ Royalty (a $50/ton bonus stream from landfill remediation, available under the CSA when a qualifying legacy landfill is confirmed) is described in Proposal §4.1. Both streams are reported as separate transactions per the Separate Transaction Principle (MR §4.8) — no netting permitted.
| Decision Factor | State A (Current System) | State B — With Carbotura ACM |
|---|---|---|
| Annual disposal cost (400 TPD addressable) | $13,286,000/yr (est.) | Beneficiation Fee: $14,600,000/yr Year 1 EST |
| Year 1 Royalty received | $0 — pre-royalty period Months 1–12 | |
| Year 2 Royalty received (from Month 13) | $17,520,000/yr at $120/ton | |
| Year 30 Royalty received | $43,015,540/yr at $294.49/ton | |
| Capital obligation (SWA) | $880M+ new landfill (status quo) | $0 SWA capex at any phase |
| Decision deadline | N/A | August 2026 — SWA Governing Board Master Plan vote |
| Cost of 1-year delay (royalty foregone) | ~$17.5M in Phase Initial royalty receipts deferred | |
| Key data gaps | WTE tipping fee (unconfirmed) · WWTP biosolids volume (unconfirmed) · Site candidate (PROVISIONAL) · Exogenesis™ eligibility (PROVISIONAL) | |
Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions — shown as separate rows. No net column. All figures Phase Initial (400 TPD / 146,000 TPY) unless noted. Source: Registry broward-swa; Proposal §3–§4.
County fiscal effects — Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) payment obligations and Circular Royalty™ receipts (independent transactions under the CSA) — and regional economic impact are distinct categories. They are reported in separate sections of this EIR and must not be combined in any analysis, summary, or presentation. A dollar of Circular Royalty™ received by the SWA and a dollar of regional economic output generated by the ACM facility are different instruments with different accounting treatment. This report maintains that separation throughout.
State A — Current System
State A — Current System
All State A values sourced from the Waste Study and Registry. No new diagnosis.
§2.1 — State A Feedstock Volume and Disposition
§2.2 — State A Cost Structure
| Cost Element | Per-Ton Rate | Annual (400 TPD / 146,000 TPY) | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landfill gate rate (FWDC basis) | $91/ton | $13,286,000 | ESTIMATED SCS Scenario A |
| WTE tipping fee (South Broward RRF) | WARN | Unconfirmed — contract rate not published | |
| Transfer station processing fee | $87/ton | $12,702,000 | ESTIMATED |
| Franchise fee (15% on disposal) | ~$13.65/ton on disposal | VERIFIED Bid OPN2125934B2 | |
| New landfill CapEx (status quo trajectory) | $880M+ non-recurring | $880M+ capital commitment | ESTIMATED SCS Scenario A |
- Rate escalation: Florida landfill rates have historically escalated 2.5–4.5% annually. SCS $91/ton is expressed in 2025 dollars; the planning horizon cost compounds materially.
- Capital reinvestment pressure: Scenario A new landfill CapEx of $880M+ distributed across ILA members adds ~$5.50–$6.00/ton/year in capital recovery charges on top of gate rates.
- WTE counterparty risk: WIN Waste pending sale creates pricing uncertainty. New owner may reprice, restrict, or decline SWA feedstock at current terms.
State A continues methane generation from landfill operations, WTE combustion emissions from the South Broward RRF, and PFAS persistence in landfill leachate. No structural remediation of legacy landfill assets occurs in State A. Carbon diversion is zero for the addressable feedstock stream. Governance fragmentation risk persists — the August 2026 Master Plan vote is the last near-term instrument to correct this trajectory through a coordinated, Authority-directed decision.
State B — With Carbotura ACM
State B — With Carbotura ACM
All State B values derive from the Proposal. No values are independently derived by this EIR.
FWDC ($91/ton) is ESTIMATED from SCS planning data — the cost comparison is a planning-basis figure, not a contracted rate. Site candidate (P2 Davie SR-7 Corridor, Priority 1) is PROVISIONAL pending Term Sheet. T0 is PROVISIONAL — standard 18 months from LOI/MOU, not yet contracted. Exogenesis™ Royalty eligibility is PROVISIONAL — Term Sheet verification of qualifying landfill closure trajectory required. Employment and carbon figures are ESTIMATED from Carbotura canonical formulas.
§3.2 — Deployment Configuration
| Phase | TPD | Modules | TPY | Est. COD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 400 | 4 × 100 TPD | 146,000 | T0 + 24 months |
| Phase Medium | 800 | 8 × 100 TPD | 292,000 | T0 + 42 months |
| Phase Expanded (Full) | 1,000 | 10 × 100 TPD | 365,000 | T0 + 60 months |
§3.3 — State B Economic Terms
| Term | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) base | $100/ton | Registry locked · Proposal §3 |
| Beneficiation Fee escalator | 2.5%/year | Carbotura standard parameter |
| Circular Royalty™ base rate | 120% of that year's Beneficiation Fee = $120/ton | Registry locked · Proposal §4.0 |
| Royalty escalator | +1 percentage point/year | Carbotura standard parameter |
| Royalty payment lag | 13 months from corresponding BF payment | CSA v2026.7 — always 13 months |
| CSA term | 30-year minimum; perpetual continuation unless Non-Renewal Notice served | CSA v2026.7 default |
| SWA capital contribution | $0 at every phase | BOO structure — 100% Carbotura CAPEX |
| Parent Performance Guarantee | 18 months on all payment obligations | Proposal §1.1 |
Phase Initial (400 TPD) addresses 100% of its contracted feedstock stream. Residual system volume above 400 TPD continues under State A conditions until Phase Medium and Phase Expanded expand the ACM footprint. At Phase Full (1,000 TPD), approximately 6.9% of the SWA's 14,575 TPD system is under ACM contract; 93.1% of system volume remains under existing State A pathways. Residual volume management is a Term Sheet deliverable — no contracted pathway exists for the residual volume until Phase Medium/Full agreements are executed.
T0 = CSA execution. Phase Initial COD = T0 + 24 months. First Circular Royalty™ payment = T0 + 37 months (13 months after Phase Initial COD). LOI/MOU target: Q3 2026 — before August 2026 SWA Governing Board Master Plan vote. All timelines are PROVISIONAL until LOI/MOU is executed. Standard 18-month LOI/MOU-to-T0 timeline assumes concurrent permitting and no site remediation required at the P2 Priority 1 candidate zone.
§3.6 — Phase Delta Map
State A: existing disposal infrastructure (steel/grey/red pins). State B: Priority 1 ACM candidate site — P2 Davie SR-7 Corridor (emerald square).
Phase Delta Map requires a Google Maps API key.
Set GOOGLE_MAPS_API_KEY in config.js.
State A / State B context is in the right panel.
State A: SCS Engineers Draft Master Plan Table 1, May 2025. State B: Proposal §2.4 site candidates (PROVISIONAL). Coordinates approximate.
Delta Analysis
Delta Analysis
- Gross Cost Displacement: The avoided State A disposal cost per ton × addressable annual TPY. At $91/ton FWDC × 146,000 TPY (Phase Initial) = $13.29M/year avoided. This is an independent financial effect of the CSA — not the same as the Circular Royalty™.
- Circular Royalty™ Cash Flow: The royalty payment by Carbotura to the SWA beginning Month 13. At $120/ton × 146,000 TPY = $17.52M/year (Year 2). This is an independent financial effect of the CSA — not the same as gross cost displacement.
- Residual Obligation: The Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) paid by the SWA to Carbotura under the CSA. At $100/ton × 146,000 TPY = $14.60M/year (Year 1). Independent from both cost displacement and royalty. The pre-royalty period requires separate treatment from Year 2+.
"Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty™ cash flow. Both are independent financial effects of the CSA."
"At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis."
"Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis."
§4.1 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table
| Item | Phase Initial (400 TPD) | Phase Medium (800 TPD) | Phase Expanded (1,000 TPD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual feedstock (TPY) | 146,000 | 292,000 | 365,000 |
| State A annual disposal cost | $13,286,000 | $26,572,000 | $33,215,000 |
| Beneficiation Fee — Year 1 | $14,600,000 | $29,200,000 | $36,500,000 |
| Gross cost displacement — Year 1 | $13,286,000 | $26,572,000 | $33,215,000 |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 1 | $0 (pre-royalty) | $0 | $0 |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 2 | $17,520,000 | $35,040,000 | $43,800,000 |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 10 | $22,770,000 | $45,540,000 | $56,925,000 |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 30 | $43,016,000 | $86,032,000 | $107,540,000 |
| Residual volume (State A conditions) | 14,175 TPD | 13,775 TPD | 13,575 TPD |
| SWA capital contribution | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Avoided landfill CapEx (non-recurring) | $880M+ | $880M+ | $880M+ |
No net column — Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions (Separate Transaction Principle). Avoided disposal cost and royalty shown as separate rows. All figures ESTIMATED. Source: Registry broward-swa; Proposal §3–§4; Waste Study §3.1.
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined.
In Year 1: the SWA pays the Beneficiation Fee at $100/ton and receives zero Circular Royalty™ — the pre-royalty period. The net outflow above State A disposal cost is $9/ton ($100 BF − $91 FWDC) for 12 months.
Post-Month 13: Circular Royalty™ payments begin at $120/ton (Year 2 basis). The Year 2 BF is $102.50/ton. The royalty exceeds the BF by $17.50/ton — a spread that compounds annually as the royalty escalates faster than the fee. Both are independent transactions — the Circular Royalty™ exceeds the Beneficiation Fee by $17.50/ton in Year 2, with that spread widening to $90.53/ton by Year 30.
| Fiscal Period | Timing | SWA Outflow | SWA Inflow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Royalty | Months 1–12 after Phase Initial COD | BF: $100/ton ($14.60M/yr) | $0 Royalty |
| Royalty Ramp | Month 13 → Month 24 | BF: $102.50/ton ($14.97M/yr) | Royalty: $120.00/ton ($17.52M/yr) |
| Steady State | Year 2 onward · perpetual | BF escalating 2.5%/yr | Royalty escalating faster — exceeds BF every year from Year 2 |
§4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost Displacement (Phase Initial · 400 TPD)
| Year | State A Disposal /ton (FWDC) | State A Annual Cost ($) | Beneficiation Fee /ton | Annual BF Paid ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $91.00 | $13,286,000 | $100.00 | $14,600,000 |
| 2 | $91.00 | $13,286,000 | $102.50 | $14,965,000 |
| 5 | $91.00 | $13,286,000 | $110.38 | $16,115,480 |
| 10 | $91.00 | $13,286,000 | $124.89 | $18,233,940 |
| 20 | $91.00 | $13,286,000 | $159.87 | $23,340,820 |
| 30 | $91.00 | $13,286,000 | $203.96 | $29,778,160 |
FWDC shown as constant $91/ton benchmark (2025 basis). Actual FWDC will escalate — presenting it flat understates the State A cost trajectory and conservatively frames ACM's advantage. No net column. BF and displacement are independent. All figures ESTIMATED.
§4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty™ Table (Phase Initial · 400 TPD)
| Year | FWDC /ton (avoided) | BF /ton → Carbotura | Annual BF Paid | Royalty Rate | Royalty /ton → SWA | Annual Royalty Received |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $91.00 | $100.00 | $14,600,000 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2 | $91.00 | $102.50 | $14,965,000 | 120% | $120.00 | $17,520,000 |
| 5 | $91.00 | $110.38 | $16,115,480 | 123% | $132.46 | $19,339,160 |
| 10 | $91.00 | $124.89 | $18,233,940 | 128% | $155.96 | $22,770,160 |
| 20 | $91.00 | $159.87 | $23,340,820 | 138% | $215.23 | $31,423,580 |
| 30 | $91.00 | $203.96 | $29,778,160 | 148% | $294.49 | $43,015,540 |
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.
No net column — Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions. Year 30 royalty of $294.49/ton vs. BF of $203.96/ton demonstrates the designed excess of royalty over fee by steady state. All ESTIMATED.
System-Level Impact
System-Level Impact
The following employment effects are regional economic impacts generated by ACM facility operations. They are distinct from SWA fiscal receipts (Beneficiation Fee obligations and Circular Royalty™ inflows) and must not be combined with fiscal analysis.
| Effect | State A (Current) | State B — Phase Initial | State B — Phase Full |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACM Direct Manufacturing FTE | 0 | ~100 | ~250 |
| Indirect / Induced Jobs | 0 | ~300 | ~750 |
| Annual Regional Economic Impact | $0 | $32M+ | $80M+ |
| NAICS Classification | Solid waste (non-manufacturing) | Manufacturing 325180/327992 et al. | Manufacturing 325180/327992 et al. |
Employment per canonical formula: Direct FTE = (TPD ÷ 400) × 100; Indirect = Direct × 3; Annual impact = (TPD ÷ 400) × $32M+. All ESTIMATED. Regional economic effects are separate from SWA fiscal receipts — not combined.
§5.2 — Environmental Delta
| Metric | State A | State B (Phase Initial) | State B (Phase Full) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon diversion (est. CO2e/yr) | 0 | ~131,400 tons | ~328,500 tons |
| 30-yr lifecycle carbon diversion | 0 | ~3.9M tons CO2e | ~9.9M tons CO2e |
| Landfill methane generation (addressable stream) | Ongoing | Eliminated for ACM volume | Eliminated for ACM volume |
| WTE combustion emissions (addressable stream) | Ongoing | Eliminated for ACM volume | Eliminated for ACM volume |
| Water recovery (est.) | 0 | ~1.2 MGD | ~3.0 MGD |
All environmental figures are designed-performance basis — ESTIMATED from Carbotura standard parameters. Actual performance subject to CSA verification terms. Environmental effects are separate from fiscal effects.
Regenesis™ operates in an anoxic, sub-atmospheric environment at temperatures above PFAS destruction thresholds. PFAS compounds in the addressable feedstock stream are destroyed in the conversion process. State A routes PFAS-containing MSW to landfills (leachate pathway) and WTE (stack emission pathway). State B eliminates both pathways for the ACM-contracted volume. This structural improvement has no contracted dollar value in the EIR but materially reduces the SWA's long-term environmental liability exposure for PFAS under state and federal regulatory frameworks.
If the August 2026 Master Plan vote proceeds without ACM inclusion, the SWA faces: (1) no contracted disposal alternative if WIN Waste RRF sale closes at materially different terms; (2) Monarch Hill Landfill closure without a contracted replacement; (3) the $880M+ new landfill CapEx commitment as the status-quo continuation path; and (4) another planning cycle — minimum 18–24 months — before any new technology can receive contracted procurement authorization. There is no fallback technology in the current SCS Master Plan that delivers zero Authority CAPEX, a royalty income stream from Year 2, and manufacturing NAICS classification under one CSA. The no-decision cost at August 2026 is structural, not merely financial.
Risk and Sensitivity
Risk and Sensitivity
§6.1 — Structured Risk Register
| Risk | Key Driver | Who Bears It | Mitigation | Residual Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC verification | WTE tipping fee unconfirmed; $91 is landfill planning fee | SWA (planning basis) | Term Sheet: WTE contract review | Low — if WTE rate >$91, FWDC basis only improves |
| WIN Waste RRF sale — new operator terms | Pending sale; buyer unknown | SWA | ACM provides contracted alternative before sale closes | Medium — LOI/MOU before sale resolution is critical |
| Technology performance | Facility throughput and Circular Materials output quality | Carbotura (BOO) | 18-month Parent Performance Guarantee; modular design | Low (Carbotura bears operational risk) |
| Timeline slippage (T0 delay) | Permitting; Master Plan vote delay; site confirmation | Both parties | LOI/MOU before August 2026 vote; concurrent permitting track | Medium — each quarter of delay defers first royalty ~$4.4M |
| Site confirmation failure | P2 Priority 1 zone unavailable | Both parties | P1 and P3 screened alternatives per SCS Master Plan | Low — three candidate zones available |
| Output market risk | Synthetic graphite, graphene compounds, recovered minerals markets may shift | Carbotura (Circular Materials) | Carbotura commercializes output; SWA royalty is independent of output price | Low for SWA — royalty formula uses BF, not product price |
| NAICS classification / RPT risk | Regulatory classification of ACM facility | Both parties | Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33); RPT §1.4 | Medium — Carbotura commits to the RPT pathway if denied |
| ILA member departures | Municipalities exit SWA authority | SWA | Phase Initial feedstock requirement <3% of remaining member volumes | Low for Phase Initial; medium for Phase Full |
| Exogenesis™ eligibility failure | Qualifying landfill closure plan not confirmed | SWA | Options A and B remain fully available regardless | Low — Exogenesis™ is additive only |
| Master Plan vote — no adoption or delay | Governing Board political dynamics; August 2026 | SWA | LOI/MOU execution before vote initiates the Term Sheet phase independently | High if no LOI/MOU executed before vote |
§6.2–§6.5 — Sensitivity Analysis
| Sensitivity | Parameter Range | Impact on SWA Fiscal Position |
|---|---|---|
| §6.2 Feedstock variability ±20% | 320–480 TPD (Phase Initial base case 400) | Annual royalty Year 2: $14.0M–$21.0M. Decision window unchanged. |
| §6.3 FWDC sensitivity — sign-change | FWDC <$95: BF premium exists (at $100 floor). FWDC ≥$100: BF equals or trails disposal cost, premium disappears. FWDC ≥$150: BF ceiling applies. | Sign-change threshold: FWDC = $100/ton — at this point, Year 1 BF equals State A disposal cost exactly; no Year 1 premium. All cases: royalty positive from Month 13. |
| §6.4 Royalty escalator sensitivity | 0 pp/yr: Y30 royalty $244.75/ton · +1 pp/yr (base): $301.86/ton · +2 pp/yr: $358.97/ton est. | Under Release 28 canonical formula (multiplier on current-year BF), Year 30 royalty exceeds BF at every escalator setting — the sensitivity is on spread magnitude, not sign. Base case Y30 spread: +$97.90/ton. |
| §6.5 Timeline slippage | T0 delay 6 months: first royalty deferred 6 months (~$8.8M). T0 delay 12 months: deferred ~$17.5M. T0 delay >18 months: Phase Initial COD slips past Master Plan infrastructure commitments. | Each quarter of pre-LOI/MOU delay costs ~$4.4M in royalty receipts and increases the risk of competing CapEx commitments locking out ACM. |
Decision Window Analysis
Decision Window Analysis
- August 2026 — SWA Governing Board Master Plan adoption vote. The binding constraint. Technologies absent from the adopted plan require separate Board authorization. The vote closes the LOI/MOU window for Master Plan inclusion.
- WIN Waste RRF pending sale. Secondary binding constraint. If the sale closes before LOI/MOU execution, the SWA negotiates post-acquisition terms from a weaker position with no contracted alternative.
- Monarch Hill Landfill capacity ceiling. Approaching closure without contracted replacement — if ACM is not contracted, the SWA has no alternative that avoids the $880M new landfill obligation.
| Decision Point | Latest Date | Consequence of Delay |
|---|---|---|
| LOI/MOU execution | Before August 2026 Board vote | ACM excluded from adopted Master Plan; additional Board authorization required; 6–18 month engagement delay |
| Term Sheet completion | ~Q1 2027 (est.) | CSA preparation delayed; T0 pushed; first royalty deferred |
| CSA execution (T0) | ~Q3 2027 (est.) | Phase Initial COD deferred month-for-month |
| First Circular Royalty™ payment | T0 + 37 months (~Q4 2030 est.) | Every month of T0 delay defers this date by one month |
The irreversible commitment in this engagement is the SWA Governing Board Master Plan adoption vote — August 2026. Once the Master Plan is adopted without ACM inclusion, the Authority is legally committed to the technology pathways specified in the plan. Adding ACM requires a formal plan amendment — a process that requires majority Board vote, public comment period, and state notification, adding 12–24 months minimum to any subsequent engagement timeline. The $880M Scenario A landfill CapEx becomes a committed line item in the adopted plan budget framework. This is not a contractual lock — it is a governance lock with similar practical effect: the Board that adopts the plan without ACM has implicitly chosen $880M+ in infrastructure obligation over a zero-capex royalty-generating alternative. That choice compounds with every year of Monarch Hill's remaining capacity and every quarter of WTE counterparty uncertainty.
| Action Before Aug 2026 | SWA Optionality Preserved | $880M CapEx Commitment | First Royalty Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOI/MOU executed | ✓ Full — Options A / B / Exogenesis™ available | Deferred — ACM addresses addressable volume | T0 + 37 months (~Q4 2030) |
| Delay past August 2026 vote | Reduced — plan amendment required | Locked in for addressable volume in plan | Deferred minimum 12–24 months beyond Q4 2030 |
| No action (status quo) | None — plan commitments bind procurement | Fully committed under Scenario A | Never |
Effects Summary
Effects Summary
No new figures introduced. All values trace to preceding sections of this EIR.
§8.1 — Fiscal Effects Table (Independent Transactions)
| Fiscal Period | SWA Outflow — BF | State A Disposal Cost (avoided) | SWA Inflow — Circular Royalty™ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (pre-royalty) | $14,600,000 ($100/ton) | $13,286,000 ($91/ton avoided) | $0 |
| Year 2 (royalty begins) | $14,965,000 ($102.50/ton) | $13,286,000 | $17,520,000 ($120/ton) |
| Year 10 | $18,233,940 ($124.89/ton) | $13,286,000 | $22,770,160 ($155.96/ton) |
| Year 30 | $29,778,160 ($203.96/ton) | $13,286,000 | $43,015,540 ($294.49/ton) |
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.
No net column — BF and Royalty are independent transactions (Separate Transaction Principle). Avoided disposal shown as separate column — independent from Royalty. All ESTIMATED · Phase Initial (400 TPD / 146,000 TPY).
Phase Initial: ~100 direct manufacturing FTE; ~300 indirect/induced jobs; ~$32M/yr regional economic impact. Phase Full (1,000 TPD): ~250 direct FTE; ~750 indirect; ~$80M/yr. These are regional economic output effects — not SWA Governing Authority fiscal receipts. All ESTIMATED from Carbotura canonical formula (Direct FTE = TPD ÷ 400 × 100).
Phase Initial: ~131,400 tons CO2e/yr diverted; ~1.2 MGD water recovered; WTE combustion and landfill methane eliminated for ACM-contracted volume; PFAS destruction for addressable stream. All figures are designed-performance estimates — actual performance subject to CSA verification terms. Environmental effects are separate from fiscal effects and are not represented as financial instruments.
- $880M+ landfill CapEx deferred/avoided for ACM-addressable volume — non-recurring structural benefit.
- CSA provides 30-year minimum contracted disposal pathway — eliminates the recurring planning cycle risk that caused the 2013 governance collapse.
- Manufacturing NAICS classification converts what was a waste management liability into a manufacturing sector economic contributor.
- Royalty income stream provides SWA member municipalities with a recurring revenue source that partially offsets collection and administration costs over the CSA term.
§8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps
| Data Gap | Current Status | Impact on Analysis | Resolution Path |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTE tipping fee (South Broward RRF) | Unconfirmed — contract rate not published | FWDC basis uses $91/ton (landfill floor) — if WTE rate >$91, FWDC basis understates cost displacement | Term Sheet: contract review or WIN Waste / buyer disclosure |
| WWTP biosolids volume and operator | Broward County Water Services (unverified); volume unknown | Phase Full feedstock planning; Accessible stream unquantified | Term Sheet: WWTP contractor identification; biosolids volume request |
| Site candidate (P2 Priority 1) | PROVISIONAL — SCS screened site; specific parcel unconfirmed | T0 timeline; permitting track; Phase Initial COD date | Term Sheet: site survey; zoning confirmation; land authority engagement |
| Exogenesis™ eligibility (Monarch Hill / BCL) | PROVISIONAL — closure trajectory not confirmed | Exogenesis™ Royalty bonus ($50/ton) unavailable until confirmed | Term Sheet: landfill closure plan; permit status review |
| August 2026 Master Plan vote outcome | Anticipated — not yet scheduled as of registry date | LOI/MOU window timing; engagement pathway | Monitor SWA Governing Board calendar; engage prior to vote |
| WIN Waste RRF buyer identity | Sale announced 2025; buyer unconfirmed | WTE contract continuity; FWDC verification | Monitor public announcements; address in Term Sheet |
Inherited Flags
A — Sources
| Item | Source | Methodology Note |
|---|---|---|
| FWDC ($91/ton) | SCS Engineers Draft Master Plan Table 10, Scenario A, May 2025 | Landfill gate rate selected per Architect direction. Flat rate applied — conservative (State A cost trajectory in reality escalates). |
| BF formula and floor | CSA v2026.7 §3.1; Registry broward-swa | MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC−$5)) = $100 at FWDC $91. Floor applied. |
| Royalty formula | CSA v2026.7 §4.0; Registry broward-swa | Royalty(m+13) = BF(m) × Rate(m); Rate(Y1) = 120%, +1pp/yr. 13-month lag. |
| Phase sizing | Registry broward-swa; Architect intake | Phase Initial 400 TPD; Phase Full 1,000 TPD. 365 operating days/yr. |
| Employment scaling | Carbotura canonical formula | Direct FTE = (TPD ÷ 400) × 100; Indirect = Direct × 3; Impact = (TPD ÷ 400) × $32M+ |
| Carbon diversion | Carbotura standard parameters | ~328.5 kg CO2e/ton avoided at ESTIMATED Carbotura standard performance basis. |
| New landfill CapEx ($880M+) | SCS Engineers Master Plan Table 10, Scenario A | Presented as status quo trajectory cost avoided under ACM. ESTIMATED. |
| Operator names | SCS Engineers Master Plan Table 1, May 2025 | WIN Waste Innovations (RRF); Broward County (BCL); WM (Monarch Hill). VERIFIED per Registry. |
B — Glossary
C — Evidence Chain
| Figure | Value | Public Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC ($91/ton) | $91/ton | SCS Engineers Draft Master Plan Table 10, Scenario A, May 2025 | ESTIMATED |
| BF at floor ($100/ton) | $100/ton | Registry broward-swa; CSA v2026.7 §3.1 | LOCKED |
| Year 2 Royalty ($120/ton) | $120/ton = 120% × $100 | Registry broward-swa; Proposal §4.0; CSA v2026.7 §4.0 | LOCKED |
| Year 30 Royalty ($294.49/ton) | $100 × 1.025^28 × 148% | Registry broward-swa; CSA v2026.7 §4.0 formula | ESTIMATED |
| Phase Initial annual BF (Y1) | $14,600,000 | $100 × 146,000 TPY; Registry | LOCKED |
| Phase Initial annual Royalty (Y2) | $17,520,000 | $120 × 146,000 TPY; Registry | LOCKED |
| State A annual disposal cost (400 TPD) | $13,286,000 | $91 × 146,000 TPY; SCS Master Plan | ESTIMATED |
| New landfill CapEx | $880M+ | SCS Master Plan Table 10, Scenario A | ESTIMATED |
| Employment (Phase Initial) | ~100 FTE / ~300 indirect / $32M+ | Carbotura canonical formula | ESTIMATED |
| WTE operator | WIN Waste Innovations, Inc. | SCS Master Plan Table 1, May 2025 | VERIFIED |
| Landfill operators | Broward County (BCL); WM (Monarch Hill) | SCS Master Plan Table 1, May 2025 | VERIFIED |
| August 2026 Master Plan vote | Anticipated — Board calendar | browardswa.org / SWA Governing Board schedule | PROVISIONAL |
Basis of Presentation
Basis of Presentation — Assumptions & Confidence
| Registry Value | Figure | Tier | Source / Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC basis | $91/ton | ESTIMATED | SCS Engineers Scenario A, May 2025. Architect-selected basis. |
| BF base | $100/ton (floor) | LOCKED | Registry; CSA v2026.7 formula at $91 FWDC |
| Royalty base rate | 120% Year 1 BF = $120/ton | LOCKED | Registry; CSA v2026.7 §4.0 |
| Royalty escalator | +1 pp/year | LOCKED | Carbotura standard |
| BF escalator | 2.5%/year | LOCKED | Carbotura standard |
| Royalty lag | 13 months | LOCKED | CSA v2026.7 — always |
| Phase Initial TPD/TPY | 400 / 146,000 | LOCKED | Architect intake |
| Phase Full TPD/TPY | 1,000 / 365,000 | LOCKED | Architect intake |
| State A disposal cost (Y1) | $13,286,000 (400 TPD) | ESTIMATED | $91 FWDC × 146,000 TPY |
| Employment — Phase Initial | ~100 FTE direct / ~300 indirect | ESTIMATED | Carbotura canonical formula |
| Carbon diversion (Phase Initial) | ~131,400 tons CO2e/yr | ESTIMATED | Carbotura standard parameters |
| Site candidate (P2) | Davie SR-7 Corridor — Priority 1 | PROVISIONAL | SCS Master Plan Figure 13; Term Sheet confirmation required |
| T0 | Standard 18 months from LOI/MOU | PROVISIONAL | Not yet contracted |
| Exogenesis™ eligibility | Monarch Hill / BCL — PROVISIONAL | PROVISIONAL | Term Sheet verification required |
| Decision window | August 2026 Master Plan vote | LOCKED | Architect override — locked |
| WTE operator | WIN Waste Innovations, Inc. | VERIFIED | SCS Master Plan Table 1, May 2025 |
Confidence tiers: LOCKED — Registry-defended. ESTIMATED — Planning data or standard parameters. PROVISIONAL — Term Sheet verification required. VERIFIED — Named public source. US GAAP · Florida · Registry: broward-swa · MI v3.6 / MR v4.6.